Orchestra is a public, longitudinal intelligence engine. Each cycle asks five AI systems eight differentiated questions, preserves every capture, gives the same corpus to two synthesizers, compares their readings, and tracks falsifiable signals until they are confirmed, invalidated, decayed, or left unresolved.
The repository is the remote-first record: prompts, raw captures, failures, declared synthesis context, disagreement, tracker movement, and specification history all remain inspectable.
The first spark was P.A.M., the robot in Fallout 4. Jaron wanted to build a real system that could gather scattered information, detect patterns, and preserve uncertainty instead of pretending prediction was certainty. What began as one possible system widened when the same machinery proved useful across markets, research, technology, energy, geopolitics, business, demographics, and physical supply chains. That wider instrument became Orchestra.
- SPEC.md is the consolidated, live specification, currently v1.1.
- SPEC-ADDENDUM-v1.1.md is the verbatim synthesis-and-tracking addendum produced by Claude Opus 4.8 with Jaron Kyler Bragg.
- CHANGELOG.md records repository-level specification and structure changes.
The addendum changes an important design assumption: synthesis context is recorded, not hidden. Both synthesizers may read any public artifact in the repository, but each must declare what it read so agreement and disagreement can be labeled as independent or informed.
| Stage | Status |
|---|---|
| Acquisition: five sources × eight domains | Built and observed |
| Public archive, versioned prompts, metadata, and manifest | Built |
| Eastern refusal-recovery prompt redesign | Prepared as 2026-07-18-v2 |
| Attempt-level refusal versus availability classification | Added for known multi-attempt exceptions |
| Shared synthesis prompt and machine-readable contracts | Built; first synthesis run pending |
| Longitudinal signal tracker | Scaffolded; no signals entered before synthesis |
| Completeness verification | Procedural; automated enforcement remains next |
| Comparison, nine-section reading, and tracker updates | Next execution stage |
| Public website consumption layer | Planned |
- Cycle date: 2026-07-18
- Sources: Grok, Perplexity, Gemini, DeepSeek, Kimi
- Domains per source: 8
- Complete final captures: 40/40
- Substantive final captures: 38/40
- Refused final captures: 2/40
- Empty final captures: 0
- Total attempts: 45
- Known unavailable attempts before a final capture: 4
- Wall clock: approximately 38 minutes
DeepSeek’s final Geopolitics / Conflict capture was a refusal. Kimi’s AI / Tech sequence was different: two unavailable K3 attempts were followed by one complete K2.6 refusal. Availability failures describe account or provider state; refusals describe the information environment. Orchestra records them separately.
Browse the logs index or the 2026-07-18 cycle manifest.
Orchestra has three layers with hard seams:
| Layer | Responsibility | Boundary |
|---|---|---|
| Acquisition | Open fresh AI sessions, send prompts, verify, classify, and store raw captures | Exercises no judgment about meaning |
| Convergence | Synthesize twice, declare context, compare modes, update signals, and produce the reading | Does not control acquisition surfaces |
| Consumption | Financial, research, content, monitoring, and the future public website | Receives attributable artifacts |
The core provenance chain is:
prompt → capture → synthesis item → comparison state → tracked signal → lifecycle event → reading
Every link has a stable identifier or path. The append-only event ledger makes tracker history replayable; the Markdown tracker remains the human-readable current view.
| Level | Name | What agrees |
|---|---|---|
| Collection | Flag hit | The world and a pre-registered prompt hypothesis |
| Synthesis | Source convergence | Two or more collection sources |
| Reading | Synthesis convergence | The two synthesis outputs |
| Time | Re-surface | A current item and a tracked signal from an earlier cycle |
Persistence is not confirmation. A signal can re-surface repeatedly without satisfying its pre-declared confirmation condition.
Orchestra promises:
- Provenance — every claim traces to captures, prompts, model versions, context declarations, and lifecycle events.
- Preserved disagreement — independent and informed disagreement remain visible rather than averaged away.
- Honest failure — refusals, unavailability, truncation, retries, degraded cycles, and unresolved signals remain part of the record.
It does not promise that a reading is correct. It promises that the reading is an honest, inspectable function of the available corpus and declared context.
orchestra/
├── SPEC.md
├── SPEC-ADDENDUM-v1.1.md
├── CHANGELOG.md
├── logs/<source>/
│ ├── prompts.md
│ └── YYYY-MM-DD/01-crypto.md ... 08-supply-chain.md
├── manifest/YYYY-MM-DD.md
├── synthesis/PROMPT.md
├── synthesis/YYYY-MM-DD/
├── convergence/YYYY-MM-DD/
├── tracking/
│ ├── signals.md
│ ├── events.jsonl
│ ├── cycles/
│ └── archive/
├── schemas/
└── readings/YYYY-MM-DD.md
- Raw logs and standing prompts
- Cycle manifests
- Shared synthesis contract
- Comparison and preserved dissent
- Longitudinal signal tracking
- Machine-readable artifact contracts
- Human-readable daily readings
- Raw prompts and responses remain verbatim.
- Corrections are additive and identify the record they amend.
- Prompt and specification changes are versioned, never silently overwritten.
- Final capture outcome and individual attempt outcome are separate.
- Context exposure is declared rather than concealed.
- Signal state is projected from an append-only lifecycle ledger.
- Every cycle commits, including degraded cycles.
- The corpus is pushed remotely before synthesis begins.
The 2026-07-18 metadata was backfilled during the v1.0 migration. Unknown timestamps and memory settings remain unknown; Git history preserves the earlier archive.
The v1.1 addendum documents a boundary that is true now and intentionally scheduled to change: financial state currently lives outside this repository, but may later become an internal directory and published view. That migration has not happened. No account credential or account state is present here today. When it happens, context declarations, directional data flow, tracker archival, and public/private field classification must change together; Part H of the addendum is the migration record.
The planned public website is a consumption view over the same artifacts: synthesis first, then tracked-signal history, research and financial views, source evidence, disagreement, cycle health, and archive history. Structured schemas and the event ledger are included now so the website can be generated from the public record instead of becoming a second source of truth.
Released under the MIT License.