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cyrustt/README.md

Hi, I'm Cyrus Tsui

I am interested in quantitative research at the intersection of mathematical modeling, statistical learning, optimization, and reliable computation.

My projects range from financial econometrics and probabilistic race modeling to counterfactual retrieval, credit-risk modeling, topological analysis of high-dimensional data, and applied matching systems. I enjoy turning quantitative questions into reproducible experiments and using computational evidence to test where an idea works, fails, or needs stronger assumptions.

Selected work

Project Focus Methods
Home Credit Default Risk Ranking repayment difficulty from application and historical credit data LightGBM, relational feature engineering, 5-fold OOF validation, Optuna, SHAP
Jockey Predictor Estimating Hong Kong race outcomes and comparing model probabilities with market odds NGBoost, probabilistic regression, Monte Carlo simulation, Selenium, GitHub Actions
S&P 500 Pairs Trading Research Testing whether cointegrated equity pairs support mean-reversion after costs Engle-Granger, ADF, FDR control, rolling OLS, chronological backtesting
Approximate Counterfactual Preservation Reducing named features while preserving retrieval-based counterfactuals Exact search, beam search, ablations, non-monotone optimization
Topology of the Million Song Dataset Comparing acoustic and behavioral structure in music data Persistent homology, UMAP, HDBSCAN, graph analysis
Imperial Marriage Pact Preference-based matching from survey data Vector similarity, constraints, ranking, batch data pipelines

Research interests

  • Statistical learning and high-dimensional data
  • Probabilistic modeling and Monte Carlo methods
  • Time-series analysis and financial econometrics
  • Counterfactual reasoning and model interpretability
  • Probability, numerical methods, and algorithmic reasoning

Tools

Python · NumPy · pandas · SciPy · statsmodels · scikit-learn · LightGBM · NGBoost · Optuna · SHAP · scientific computing · experiment design · data visualization

Elsewhere

Pinned Loading

  1. counterfactual-preservation counterfactual-preservation Public

    Research toolkit for preserving retrieval-based counterfactuals under feature reduction

    Python

  2. cyrustt.github.io cyrustt.github.io Public

    HTML

  3. Imperial-Marriage-Pact Imperial-Marriage-Pact Public

    Marriage Pact is a stable matching algorithm based on the Gale-Shapley algorithm to match people with their soulmates.

    Python

  4. TDA_project TDA_project Public

    Jupyter Notebook